Turkey and Israel: On the Way Back to Normal
Brenda Shaffer
In her blog post, Brenda Shaffer argues that recent events in the region – most notably the deterioration of Turkey-Russian relations over Turkey's downing of a Russian fighter jet – have paved the way for a thaw in Turkey-Israel relations which have been strained since the Mavi Marmara incident in 2010. According to Shaffer, Turkey's biggest vulnerability as a result of its crisis with Russia is energy security, which may mean increased energy cooperation between Turkey and Israel as Turkey will seek to decrease its dependence on Russian natural gas imports.
"The most problematic factor is that the current timing of renewal of relations between Turkey and Israel is contingent to the crises between Turkey and Russia, and may be the proximate cause for Ankara for renewal of ties with Israel. This puts Israel in a difficult security situation. Israel maintains very good cooperation with Russia which it will not want to jeopardize."
"The prospects of Israeli gas being exported to Turkey will also be influenced by developments in the crisis between Turkey and Russia. Not only is Russia the main supplier of gas to Turkey, but also Turkey is Russia's second biggest gas export market. Thus, despite the crisis, both sides have a strong interest in keeping the gas supply stable."
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